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Thursday, 7 August 2014

Embracing the core of the ‘Buy-Zimbabwe Culture’


By Bernard Bwoni

“Can’t you find better ways of making your money than importing water? Can you justifiably boast that you have made it, when you have just made money from importing water?” he asked. “My heart bleeds when I go through national statistics because what we are spending on imports could have been channelled towards the local industry’s recovery process.” “As long as we export raw materials we will never be a rich country. We will forever be a developing country. When you are a net exporter of raw materials all the time, as a country we are specialising in being poor,” These were substance-abundant words from one of the ‘Real Best Ministers’ in government to date, Minister of Finance Patrick Chinamasa. This is can only be described as progressive and forms the nucleus of the ‘Buy Zimbabwe Culture’ that has the potential to propel this country to its overdue and inevitable economic transformation.

 The competiveness of the local manufacturing sector in Zimbabwe has been diminishing in the face of stiff competition from cheaper imports from much larger manufacturers from South Africa and from the Far East who benefit from economies of scale. What Minister Chinamasa is alluding to is the fact that this unfortunate trend of over-reliance on imports will lead to under-utilisation of local capacity, lead to even more unemployment, fiscal challenges and Zimbabwe will not get the opportunity to realise its full manufacturing potential. It is regrettable that Minister Chinamasa is reluctant to intervene legislatively to stop imports.  Minister Chinamasa let me take you back to 1776 when Adam Smith, in his ‘Wealth of the Nations’, advised the Americans not to “artificially promote manufacturing industry and argued that any attempt to stop the importation of European manufactures would obstruct instead of promoting real wealth and greatness”. The Americans however did not listen to Adam Smith’s advice but rather to their then Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton who argued that American industries were still in their infancy and as such could not be expected to compete against the mature industries in the more advanced economies without an initial period of deliberate government promotion and protection. And the America we see today owes its economic and political glory and dominance to the economic policies of Hamilton.

The value of protecting infant industries has been vigorously defended since the 18th century by economists such as Alexander Hamilton in 1791 for the USA trade policy. Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector is emerging from over decade of a downturn and thus unrealistic to expect it to compete against the mature industries in the more advanced regional and advanced international economies without an initial period of deliberate government promotion and protection. The country’s manufacturing sector is in a dire state due to in-need-of-revamp infrastructure as well as shortage of capital, electricity and water. Most companies are operating at very low capacity due to the effects of the economic sanctions placed against Zimbabwe. The key is for local textile manufacturers to focus on competiveness as the ultimate long-term objective but government needs to initially offer the sector a period infant industry protection as they build up their competiveness. There is no competitiveness build on fragile foundations.

 The Zimbabwe manufacturing sector is emerging from over a decade of a sanctions-induced decline and as such in its infancy. The manufacturing sector in Zimbabwe cannot be expected to compete against the mature industries in the more advanced regional and advanced international economies without an initial period of deliberate government promotion and protection. It is going to take time and more importantly investment in technological capabilities for manufacturing companies in Zimbabwe to absorb advanced technologies. Without this initial period of protection the sector is going to struggle to survive the international competition. The revival of the manufacturing in Zimbabwe requires some level of government protection and subsidies at the initial stages so that we can absorb the technologies and learn to complete in the global market.  Zimbabwe is currently coming from a 14 year economic slump and a period of at least 5 years of strategic protection of the country’s manufacturing sector is necessary to give it that stability to be competitive. It is easy to say that the key to industrialisation is competiveness not protectionism but a baby has to learn to crawl before they can walk. Economic literature considers that import restrictions of any kind create an anti-export bias by raising the price of importable goods relative to exportable goods.

It is important to make a strong argument that premature trade liberalisation has been a failure and characterised by negative economic growth in per-capita terms and collapse of manufacturing with our domestic production swamped by cheap imports as capacity utilisation has dropped to low levels. With very few exceptions, tariff cuts and other measures of trade liberalisation have not brought about the anticipated economic growth and, in a lot of cases, have in fact brought economic collapse. Free trade is one of those theories that is logically consistent with itself but not in the real world as it has not been universally linked to subsequent economic growth. This is evidenced by the economic chaos unleashed by the structural adjustment programmes of the early 1990s in Zimbabwe and other developing countries. Without some sort of infant industry protection the economy will have little hope of diversifying through industrialisation and accelerating growth on a sustainable basis. Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector, in this early stage of revival, would benefit from this critical period of protection to enable it to maintain output and employment and this will subsequently spearhead economic growth. Minister Chinamasa has those keys just like Alexandra Hamilton and it is up to him to unlock this potential by locking away the threat that is liberalisation.

bernardbwoni.blogspot.com

 

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